Macro Into Payrolls and Sintra

This report outlines institutional market sentiment regarding upcoming US payroll data and Fed policy signals at Sintra. Strategists emphasize the increased USD sensitivity to economic data due to the current lack of Fed forward guidance.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The market is heavily focused on how the 'Warsh Fed' will react to upcoming Payroll data and speeches at Sintra regarding inflation and labor market health.
• 2.A strong NFP print above 150k could trigger a hawkish repricing of the July FOMC meeting, benefiting the USD while potentially damaging EM FX.
• 3.Equities traders prefer a slightly softer payroll print, as current market concerns center on the 'AI spending economy' versus the impact of potential rate hikes.

Table of Contents

• FX Strategy
• Rates Trading
• FX Trading
• Equities Trading

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