Macro at a Glance

Goldman Sachs forecasts a global growth slowdown to 2.4% in 2026 driven by energy price headwinds from the Iran war. Central banks are expected to maintain restrictive stances before gradual cuts as inflation cools toward targets.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The ongoing Iran war is the primary risk factor, causing energy supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz and pressuring global growth.
• 2.Global GDP growth is projected to slow to 2.4% yoy in 2026, largely due to high energy price headwinds.
• 3.The Fed is expected to cut rates in late 2026 and early 2027 to a terminal range of 3-3.25%, with core PCE inflation cooling to 2.8% by December 2026.

Table of Contents

• Watching
• Growth
• Forecasts
• More from TOP of MIND
• Disclosure Appendix
• Global product; distributing entities
• General disclosures

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