Lithium Update: Expansion and Restart Economics

Goldman Sachs retains a Sell rating on Mineral Resources (MIN.AX) despite increasing long-term lithium production forecasts following a site tour. While NAV increased to A$45.2, the stock is viewed as overvalued relative to its 1.6x NAV trading level.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Wodgina expansion could increase processing capacity from 5.4Mt to 7.2Mtpa by FY30 via de-bottlenecking or a 4th train.
• 2.Mt Marion underground mining and new flotation plant have been included in the base case, though project NPV increased only modestly.
• 3.The Bald Hill restart is included with a 3-year life assumption, but it remains NPV negative at current lithium price forecasts.

Table of Contents

• Key takeaways and modeling changes
• EBITDA/NAV changes and Investment Thesis
• Key charts
• EBITDA, NAV changes, investment risks
• Disclosure Appendix
• Price target and rating history chart(s)
• Target price history table(s)
• Regulatory disclosures

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