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May 24, 2026

Latam Today

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The report details a significant activity rebound in Argentina for March and highlights Mexico's likely end to rate cuts despite weak 1Q GDP growth and sticky services inflation.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.Argentina's economic activity rebounded sharply in March with a 5.5% y-on-y increase, offsetting the prior two months of negative momentum.
  • 2.Mexico's central bank (MPC) minutes indicate the rate-cutting cycle has likely ended at 6.50% despite a 3-2 split and significant 1Q26 GDP contraction.
  • 3.Mexico's 1Q2026 GDP was weaker than consensus, declining 0.62% qoq sa, with broad-based weakness in secondary and tertiary sectors.

Table of Contents

  • ARGENTINA: Strong Recovery of Economic Activity in March
  • MEXICO: MPC Minutes: Done Cutting but for Two Directors Policy Rate is Still High Bottom-Line
  • Contained 1H May Inflation; Supply-Shock to Perishable Food Started to Mean-Revert Bottom Line
  • Broad-Based Decline of Real GDP During 1Q2026; Weak Secondary and Tertiary Sector Activity
  • PERU: Data Today

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Authors

Alberto RamosSergio ArmellaSantiago TellezJorge Moscoso

Securities

USDMXNMexico Policy Rate

Themes

LATAM Monetary Policy DivergencePost-Supply Shock Inflation Mean-Reversion

Regions

Latin AmericaArgentinaMexicoPeru