Latam Tariff Monitor

The USTR has outlined new Section 301 tariff plans targeting Latin American imports that will likely replace the temporary global Section 122 tariffs in July 2026. Brazil is projected to see the steepest effective tariff increase, rising from 9.6% to over 18%.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The USTR has proposed new Section 301 tariffs targeting Latam imports, intended to replace the global 10% Section 122 tariff set to expire in July 2026.
• 2.Brazil faces the most significant impact, with a proposed 25% tariff on non-exempt products and a total effective tariff rise of 8.6pp to 18.2%.
• 3.A new tariff of 10% to 12.5% is proposed for 60 countries, including major Latam nations, based on concerns over forced labor enforcement.

Table of Contents

• A Significant Fraction of US Imports from LatAm is Exempt from Tariffs
• Anticipated Change in Country-level Tariff Rate
• While Leaning Higher, the Anticipated Change Falls Short of the Peak Estimated Tariff Rate Seen in 2025
• Disclosure Appendix