Latin American Metals Mining Pulp and Paper Update

A comprehensive summary of ratings, target prices, and financial forecasts for Latin American mining and pulp & paper sectors, including sensitivity analysis for commodity price swings.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Maintain 'Buy' ratings on high-conviction metals and pulp names including Aura Minerals (AUGO), Vale (VALE), and Suzano (SUZB3).
• 2.Commodity price forecasts for 2026 exhibit significant premiums over historical averages, particularly for Copper ($12,656/t) and Gold ($5,028/oz).
• 3.Maintain 'Sell' ratings on COPEC, CSN (CSNA3), and CSN Mineracao (CMIN3) based on valuation and pricing headwinds.

Table of Contents

• Coverage Summary
• Relative Performance
• Commodity & FX forecasts
• GSe vs spot prices & FX
• Spot +/-10% change in commodity prices
• EBITDA sensitivity
• FCF Yield vs Production growth
• Price/NAV vs EV/EBITDA
• GS vs Consensus
• Historical Trading 1-yr Fwd EV/EBITDA
• Disclosure Appendix

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