LatAm Metals and Mining Pulp and Paper Forecasts and Pricing Scenarios

This report provides updated coverage, commodity price forecasts, and financial sensitivity analysis for the Latin American Metals, Mining, and Pulp & Paper sectors as of May 2026.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Goldman Sachs maintains 'Buy' ratings on a selection of major LatAm names including Vale, Grupo Mexico, Suzano, and First Quantum Minerals based on price target upside and FCF yields.
• 2.Copper and Lithium Carbonate forecasts show significant differences between current spot prices and projected 2026/Long-Term nominal values.
• 3.Sensitivity analysis indicates that a 10% change in spot commodity prices substantially impacts the FY26 EV/EBITDA and FCF Yield profiles for miners like Vale and CSN Mineração.

Table of Contents

• Coverage Summary
• Relative Performance
• Commodity & FX forecasts
• GSe vs spot prices & FX
• Spot +/-10% change in commodity prices
• EBITDA sensitivity
• FCF Yield vs Production growth
• Price/NAV vs EV/EBITDA
• GS vs Consensus
• Historical Trading 1-yr Fwd EV/EBITDA
• Disclosure Appendix

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