Goldman Sachs hosted Unicaja's CFO and CRO for a roadshow, highlighting flat 2026 NII expectations, mortgage margin pressure, and a commitment to a 95% payout ratio. Despite management's optimism on capital returns, GS maintains a Sell rating with a €2.70 target price.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Unicaja expects Net Interest Income (NII) to remain relatively flat in 2026 but anticipates growth in 2027-2028 driven by higher rates and bond repricing.
- 2.Mortgage margins are under severe pressure, with front-book spreads yielding negative returns on a standalone basis before cross-selling.
- 3.The bank maintains a robust capital position with a high intended payout ratio of 95%.
Table of Contents
- Key Takeaways from CFO & CRO Roadshow
- Valuation & Key Risks
- Disclosure Appendix
- Reg AC
- GS Factor Profile
- M&A Rank
- Quantum
- Disclosures
- Company-specific regulatory disclosures
- Distribution of ratings/investment banking relationships
- Price target and rating history chart(s)
- Target price history table(s)
- Regulatory disclosures
- Additional disclosures required under the laws and regulations of jurisdictions other than the United States
- Ratings, coverage universe and related definitions
- Global product; distributing entities
- General disclosures
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Authors
Sofie PeterzensChris HallamBenjamin Caven-Roberts
Securities
UNI.MC
Themes
Net Interest Income (NII) NormalizationMortgage Pricing DisciplineCapital Distribution
Regions
EuropeSpain
