Japan Focus of the Week

Goldman Sachs forecasts a slowdown in Tokyo's May core CPI and a third monthly decline in industrial production, while expecting the BOJ to stick to its JGB tapering schedule.

Key Takeaways

• 1.May Tokyo new core CPI is forecast to slow to +1.8% yoy, while core CPI remains at +1.5%.
• 2.Japan's Q1 real GDP growth of +2.1% qoq annualized exceeded market expectations, driven by private consumption and external demand.
• 3.The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its current JGB purchase reduction plan, targeting a monthly purchase of ~¥2 trillion by Q1 2027.

Table of Contents

• Focus Next Week
• This Week's Main Research
• This Week's Data and Events
• Upcoming Economic Indicators and Events (May 25-29)
• Research Recap
• This Week's Recap: Economic Events and Data
• Preliminary Q1 Real GDP +2.1% QoQ Annualized, Above Market Forecast
• April National CPI: New Core CPI Prints at +1.9%, Well Below Market Forecast, Amid Widespread Deceleration and Policy Factors
• April Trade: Crude Oil Import Unit Price Surges while Import Volume Plunges. Stable LNG Import Price
• January-March Core Machinery Orders Increase for Second Straight Quarter; Modest Increase Expected for April-June
• Reference: Japan One Month Economic Calendar
• Disclosure Appendix

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