Japan Focus of the Week

Goldman Sachs previews a pivotal week in Japan featuring the re-appointment of PM Sanae Takaichi and the release of Q4 GDP and January CPI data. Analysts forecast a GDP rebound and maintain a base-case July BOJ rate hike, while noting risks of an earlier move due to yen depreciation.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Following a landslide election victory, the LDP secured a supermajority, simplifying the implementation of PM Sanae Takaichi's proactive fiscal agenda.
• 2.The Bank of Japan is expected to hike rates in July as a base case, but April or June remain possible if Yen weakness persists.
• 3.Japan's real GDP is forecast to rebound to +1.5% qoq annualized in 2025Q4 after a contraction in Q3.

Table of Contents

• Focus Next Week
• This Week's Main Research
• This Week's Data and Events
• Upcoming Economic Indicators and Events (February 16 - 20)
• Research Recap
• This Week's Recap: Economic Events and Data
• Disclosure Appendix

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