Inside the Chip Chokepoint: Five Key Takeaways From ASML Visit

Goldman Sachs analysts maintain a Buy rating on ASML following a headquarters visit, citing high visibility into demand for EUV machines and a smooth capacity ramp through 2027.

Key Takeaways

• 1.ASML's capacity expansion for EUV lithography machines is tracking well, with targets of 60+ units in 2026 and 80+ in 2027.
• 2.Visibility into future demand has significantly improved as both Memory and Logic customers are providing long-term commitments and prepayments.
• 3.China demand remains resilient, with the lack of domestic EUV capabilities driving higher demand for tool-intensive DUV stacking methods.

Table of Contents

• Capacity ramp progressing smoothly into 2026/27 with scope for further AI-driven step-up in demand
• Improving breadth of leading-edge Logic/Foundry customer base, with CPU emerging as a key AI tailwind
• Increased visibility into demand from Memory and Logic customers
• ASML sees low adoption threshold for High NA adoption in Memory which could enable an earlier uptake of the technology vs Logic applications
• China demand remains resilient, with scope for higher DUV intensity supporting demand in our view
• GS Forecast

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