India Weekly Kickstart

The NIFTY rose 1% this week as FII ownership hit a 20-year low relative to domestic institutions. While current earnings are beating estimates, rising input costs and supply shortages suggest a worsening downgrade cycle ahead.

Key Takeaways

• 1.FII ownership in Indian equities has slipped below DII ownership for the first time in over two decades.
• 2.Corporate earnings are currently tracking ahead of estimates, with 60% of MXIN cap reported and an average EPS surprise of 4-5%.
• 3.Rising input costs have surged to a 10-year high in corporate discussions, signaling a potential worsening of the downgrade cycle in coming quarters.

Table of Contents

• Performance
• Valuation
• Flows
• Macro
• Focus: Outflows Fade, But Re-entry Waits
• Focus: 4QFY26 / 1QCY26 Earnings
• Views: MW India; Expect NIFTY to reach 25,900 in 12m
• Performance summary: Global Markets, Commodities, FX, and Rates
• India: Sector performance
• Relative performance of MSCI India sectors
• Thematic monitor
• Style investing monitor
• Earnings revision
• Valuations
• FII equity flows
• Foreign positioning in India
• Domestic Flows
• India Equity Risk Barometer (GSSRIERB)
• Market Breadth, Volatility and Derivatives Positioning

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