Housing and Mortgage Monitor: Manufacturing a Solution to the Housing Shortage

This report highlights manufactured housing as a cost-effective solution to the 3-4 million unit US housing shortage, despite ongoing regulatory and financing barriers.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The US housing market faces a shortage of 3-4 million homes, and manufactured housing (MH) is a key potential solution due to its lower cost (approx. 50% cheaper than site-built).
• 2.Manufactured housing shipments remain stagnant at ~80,000 units annually, significantly below the pre-2000 average of 265,000 units.
• 3.Key growth impediments include restrictive local zoning, financing challenges (prevalence of high-rate chattel loans), and negative public perception.

Table of Contents

• Housing Forecasts and Key Charts
• Economic growth remains positive year over year
• US housing affordability is still poor
• Home sales volume has fallen
• Supply of completed homes remains constrained
• 33% of new GSE purchase mortgages have DTI above 43%
• Homeownership rates have ticked down in Q12026
• Sequential home price growth has slowed
• Most US metros are seeing home price growth stabilize
• Household balance sheet metrics remain resilient
• Subprime auto ABS losses have grown
• 2.2% of mortgaged properties have negative equity
• 30-year FNMA prepayment rates were down 16% in April vs. March
• Conventional MBS prepayment rates decreased for higher coupons in April vs. March
• High coupon Ginnie Mae prepayments decreased month-on-month
• About 20% of mortgage borrowers are in-the-money for refinancing
• The Federal Reserve's agency MBS assets remain below $2.1 trillion
• Agency MBS valuations have improved recently
• CMBS delinquency rates remain contained despite challenging CRE fundamentals
• High CMBS note rates will be an obstacle to debt refinancing
• Apartment property prices have declined
• CMBS spreads have tightened