Housing and Mortgage Monitor

While Canadian home prices have dropped 20% due to payment shocks and supply growth, the US market remains resilient thanks to 30-year fixed mortgages and limited supply. Goldman Sachs analysts argue a Canadian-style price correction is unlikely for the US.

Key Takeaways

• 1.A Canadian-style housing price collapse (down 20% from peak) is unlikely in the US due to structural differences in mortgage products.
• 2.US homeowners are insulated from interest rate payment shocks by 30-year fixed mortgages, whereas Canadian borrowers face 5-year reset cycles.
• 3.Canadian housing supply has expanded significantly faster than the US, with housing starts 24% higher than 2019 levels vs only 8% higher in the US.

Table of Contents

• Housing Forecasts and Key Charts
• Economic growth remains positive year over year
• US housing affordability is still poor
• Home sales volume has fallen
• Supply of completed homes remains constrained
• 34% of new GSE purchase mortgages have DTI above 43%
• Homeownership rates have ticked up in Q42025
• Sequential home price growth has slowed
• Most US metros are seeing home price growth stabilize
• Household balance sheet metrics remain resilient
• Subprime auto ABS losses have grown
• 2.2% of mortgaged properties have negative equity
• 30-year FNMA prepayment rates were up 22% in March vs. February
• Conventional MBS prepayment rates increased for higher coupons in March vs. February
• High coupon Ginnie Mae prepayments increased month-on-month
• About 20% of mortgage borrowers are in-the-money for refinancing
• The Federal Reserve's agency MBS assets remain below $2.1 trillion
• Agency MBS valuations have improved recently
• CMBS delinquency rates remain contained despite challenging CRE fundamentals
• High CMBS note rates will be an obstacle to debt refinancing
• Apartment property prices have declined
• CMBS spreads have tightened

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