Higher US LNG Supply Moderating Impact From Hormuz

Goldman Sachs reduces its summer US LNG supply forecast by 5 mtpa as cargoes divert to Asia, increasing transit times. However, NW European storage remains on track for 82% by October due to mild weather offsets.

Key Takeaways

• 1.US LNG supply is increasingly diverting to Asia due to higher JKM-TTF spreads, resulting in longer voyage times and lower monthly delivered volumes.
• 2.Goldman Sachs has lowered its US LNG summer supply forecast by 5 mtpa due to these longer transit routes.
• 3.Despite supply tightness, NW European gas storage is still projected to be 82% full by end-October 2026 due to mild weather and higher pipeline supply.

Table of Contents

• LNG prices incentivizing more supply re-routes to Asia
• Longer routes lead to a slower pace of deliveries
• We lower our expected US LNG supply for the summer
• European storage can still reach 80% of full
• Team Natural Gas
• Disclosure Appendix

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