Higher Headline Inflation Expectations but Lower Core Ex-Food and Regulated Expectations

Colombia's May survey shows higher headline inflation expectations due to noncore pressures, though core inflation forecasts fell. Economists expect the central bank to hike rates by 50bp in June, reaching a terminal rate of 12.25% by late 2026.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Median headline inflation expectations for end-2026 and end-2027 rose to 6.5% and 5.0% respectively, driven by noncore pressures like food and energy.
• 2.Policy-sensitive core inflation expectations declined, likely reflecting lower-than-anticipated minimum wage passthrough to services.
• 3.Analysts expect a 50bp rate hike in June, followed by smaller hikes to reach a terminal rate of 12.25% by October 2026.

Table of Contents

• DETAILS
• Still Unanchored Inflation Expectations
• Economists Surveyed Expect MPC to Deliver a 300bp Hiking Cycle in Total Through 2026
• Economists Expect Hiking Cycle to Resume with +50bp in June, and 25bp in July, and 25bp in October
• Disclosure Appendix
• Global product; distributing entities
• General disclosures

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