GS Morning Market Update

This report provides a daily update on energy markets, FX strategy, and regional updates for Hungary (HUF) and China (CNH). Goldman Sachs analysts highlight a shift toward sustained USD strength and recommend volatility-based trades.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Geopolitical escalation in the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted Persian Gulf oil flows, currently at 71% of normal levels.
• 2.Goldman Sachs has shifted away from a USD depreciation forecast, now expecting the dollar to remain strong driven by AI-related CapEx and higher neutral interest rates.
• 3.KRW is expected to outperform, supported by strong trade surplus, equity-related hedging inflows, and upcoming ADR repatriation.

Table of Contents

• COMMODITIES RESEARCH (GRIGSBY) – Oil Tracker
• FX Trader Call Takeaways
• Cheap FX Convexity
• EURHUF Update
• EM MARKETSTRATS (SUN LU) – CNH: Are Headwinds Strong Enough for a Reversal?

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