Goldman Partner Warns Watch Bonds

While technical factors like index gamma and a tech hardware rally support markets, rising inflation and a sharp selloff in bonds pose significant structural risks. The US 30-year yield has surpassed 5%, creating a negative bond impulse that historically limits equity upside.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Bond volatility and a negative bond impulse are the primary headwinds for equities, as the 10-year yield breaks ranges and the 30-year exceeds 5%.
• 2.US inflation remains high with CPI printing +0.38% m/m, driven by sticky categories like OER and a pass-through of Trump's tariffs.
• 3.Technology allocations (Info Tech) are at historic extremes, reaching the 99th-100th percentile of total US Prime book allocations.

Table of Contents

• Oil/Trade
• Semis/TMT
• UK
• Europe
• Inflation
• Risk/Technicals

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