Goldman Macro Playbook For An Iran Peace Deal

Goldman Sachs macro traders outline a 'playbook' for an Iran peace deal, suggesting investors chase UK rates and global equities while fading European front-end rates and long-duration DM yields.

Key Takeaways

• 1.An imminent Iran peace deal is expected to drive oil forwards lower, rates lower, rate curves steeper, and equities higher.
• 2.UK front-end rates are the primary 'chase' opportunity due to economic weakness and higher probability of future cuts compared to peers.
• 3.European front-end rates should be 'faded' on a rally as core inflation has not yet peaked and the June ECB hike is already locked in.

Table of Contents

• PLAYBOOK FOR A DEAL...
• US DURATION UNDERPERFORMANCE...
• TIGHTENING EUROPEAN RATE DISTRIBUTIONS...
• UK FRONT END HAS PERFORMED FINALLY...BUT MORE TO GO...
• IN SUMMARY...

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