Goal Kickstart: Sharp Risk Appetite Rebound Led By Tech Momentum Rally

Risk appetite has experienced one of its sharpest reversals on record, driven by a 27% rally in the Nasdaq 100 and strong Q1 earnings. Goldman Sachs remains tactically neutral in the near term but pro-risk for the next 12 months, favoring defensive rotations within equities.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Risk appetite has rebounded sharply from March troughs, with the Risk Appetite Indicator (RAI) moving from -0.17 to above 1 in just 43 days.
• 2.The equity rally has been exceptionally narrow and momentum-driven, led by the Nasdaq 100 and AI-related investments.
• 3.GS economists have delayed their forecast for the final two Fed rate cuts to December 2026 and March 2027 due to persistent PCE inflation near 3%.

Table of Contents

• Cross-asset: Forecasts
• Cross-asset: Weekly and YTD performance, absolute and risk-adjusted
• Cross-asset: Risk appetite indicator
• Cross-asset: Risk Appetite principal component analysis
• Cross-asset: Balanced portfolios and dynamic allocation strategies performance
• Cross-asset: Equity vs. credit monitor
• Cross-asset: Valuation and risk premia
• Cross-asset: Yields
• Cross-asset: Sentiment and Positioning
• Cross-asset: Global Funds Flows
• Cross-asset: CFTC positioning
• Cross-asset: Correlations: Equity vol/CDS, commodity prices/credit & FX, equity/bond, equity/FX
• Cross-asset: Correlation matrix
• Cross-asset: Implied and realised vol, call and put skew
• Cross-asset: Volatility, skew, CDS with equity vol, rate vol
• Cross-asset: Liquidity indicators
• Cross-asset: Market pricing of US recession risk
• Equity: Drawdown probability
• Equity: Valuation and styles
• Equity: Earnings
• Government bonds: Yield curves
• Government bonds: Real yields, inflation, breakevens, 10y IR differentials
• Commodities: Curve shapes and roll yields
• FX: Forecasts and forwards, recent performance and positioning

Document Preview

Page 1 of 5

Subscribe for full accessStart Free Trial