Goal Kickstart

This report highlights a shift in focus toward upcoming central bank meetings amid rising inflationary concerns and strong US labor data. Despite market volatility, Goldman Sachs remains overweight on equities over a 12-month horizon while favoring selective protective overlays.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Focus is shifting to upcoming central bank meetings (ECB, Fed, BoJ, BoE) following stronger-than-expected US labor market data.
• 2.Tactical stance is neutral on equities but pro-risk over 12 months (OW Equities, N Bonds/Commodities/Cash, UW Credit).
• 3.Negative equity-bond correlations imply that further yield increases become harder for equities to absorb.

Table of Contents

• Cross-asset: Forecasts
• Cross-asset: Weekly and YTD performance, absolute and risk-adjusted
• Cross-asset: Risk appetite indicator
• Cross-asset: Risk Appetite principal component analysis
• Cross-asset: Balanced portfolios and dynamic allocation strategies performance
• Cross-asset: Equity vs. credit monitor
• Cross-asset: Valuation and risk premia
• Cross-asset: Yields
• Cross-asset: Sentiment and Positioning
• Cross-asset: Global Funds Flows
• Cross-asset: CFTC positioning
• Cross-asset: Correlations: Equity vol/CDS, commodity prices/credit & FX, equity/bond, equity/FX
• Cross-asset: Correlation matrix
• Cross-asset: Implied and realised vol, call and put skew
• Cross-asset: Volatility, skew, CDS with equity vol, rate vol
• Cross-asset: Liquidity indicators
• Cross-asset: Market pricing of US recession risk
• Equity: Drawdown probability
• Equity: Valuation and styles
• Equity: Earnings
• Government bonds: Yield curves
• Government bonds: Real yields, inflation, breakevens, 10y IR differentials
• Commodities: Curve shapes and roll yields
• FX: Forecasts and forwards, recent performance and positioning