FOMC First Take

The FOMC maintained the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% while adopting a hawkish tone, marked by half of the participants penciling in rate hikes for 2026. Chairman Warsh introduced a regime shift characterized by the removal of forward guidance and the establishment of internal task forces to address inflation and institutional operations.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The FOMC kept rates at 3.5%-3.75% in a unanimous vote but signaled a hawkish tilt with many participants forecasting 2026 rate hikes.
• 2.Chairman Warsh implemented a new communication style, abandoning forward guidance and creating task forces for institutional reform.
• 3.Economic forecasts were revised significantly, with Core PCE inflation for 2026 projected at 3.3% versus 2.7% previously.

Table of Contents

• Key Headlines (Bloomberg)
• New June Dot Plot
• GS RESEARCH FIRST TAKE
• MAIN POINTS

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