Flow and Positioning Observations

The report highlights risks associated with extreme market positioning tied to AI-related spending and discusses recent volatility in the tech sector. It also notes bearish price action in oil despite geopolitical concerns and ongoing debates regarding inflation.

Key Takeaways

• 1.High market exposure to AI-related capital expenditure creates systemic vulnerability if the spending cycle is disrupted.
• 2.Investors are increasingly re-evaluating the sustainability of the AI investment cycle following isolated project deferrals and volatility in tech/semis.
• 3.Despite geopolitical tensions, oil prices remain bearish, suggesting physical supply chains remain intact.

Table of Contents

• Asia
• Oil
• Bimodal AI
• Investment Debate
• CPI
• Risk
• Inflation momentum
• Market measures of inflation have started to normalise but macro data not yet
• Ariana Contessa – US sales trading
• Market
• DERIVS