Evaluating Execution Risk for Avexitide Phase 3 Readout in Post-Bariatric Hypoglycemia

Goldman Sachs reiterates a Buy rating on Amylyx (AMLX) ahead of the 3Q26 Phase 3 LUCIDITY readout for avexitide in PBH, viewing the trial as meaningfully de-risked by prior Phase 2 efficacy data.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Phase 3 LUCIDITY readout for avexitide in post-bariatric hypoglycemia (PBH) is expected in 3Q26 and is the key near-term stock driver.
• 2.Goldman Sachs maintains a 75% probability of success (PoS) for avexitide in PBH, estimating $2.2B in unadjusted peak sales.
• 3.Potential execution risks including patient dietary adherence and behavioral changes are mitigated by stringent screening and continuous glucose monitoring (CGM).

Table of Contents

• Key takeaways
• Background
• Avextide evidence in PBH
• Ph3 design
• Key risks & considerations
• Bar for success
• Scenario analysis
• Valuation and risks
• Disclosure Appendix

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