Elior Group SA: Lowering Estimates Post 1H26 Miss

Goldman Sachs maintains a Neutral rating on Elior Group SA but slashes its price target to €2.00 following a weak 1H26 performance and downgraded management guidance. The cut reflects a 30% reduction in FY26 EBITA expectations and persistent leverage concerns.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Elior reported a significant 1H26 miss across organic growth, margins, and cash generation, leading to a broad downgrade of full-year guidance.
• 2.FY26 EBITA estimates have been lowered by approximately 30% to €161mn, driven by cost inflation, net new business weakness, and a specific €25mn provision for an Italian rail contract dispute.
• 3.The 12-month price target is reduced to €2.0 (from €2.95) due to lower earnings, higher debt, and a reduced probability weight assigned to potential M&A.

Table of Contents

• 1H26 recap: Weaker organic growth and margins; FY26 guidance downgraded
• Estimate changes
• Valuation changes
• Investment thesis
• Valuation and risks
• Disclosure Appendix

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