Ecopetrol 1Q26 First Take Adj EBITDA Slightly Above GSe and Consensus

Ecopetrol's 1Q26 Adj. EBITDA of COP 13.5tn beat GS estimates by 7%, primarily due to strong downstream margins. GS maintains a Neutral rating pending more clarity on the Brava Energia acquisition and Colombian political risks.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Ecopetrol reported 1Q26 Adj. EBITDA of COP 13.5tn, which is 7% above Goldman Sachs estimates and 4% above the midpoint of company guidance.
• 2.The earnings beat was primarily driven by healthier margins in the downstream division (USD 12.7/bbl), benefiting from wider international crack spreads.
• 3.Ecopetrol is contesting a COP 12tn tax dispute with Colombia's DIAN regarding fuel imports, currently recognizing no provision based on a high probability of success.

Table of Contents

• Ecopetrol (ECO.CN): 1Q26 First Take: Adj. EBITDA slightly above GSe and consensus
• What to expect for tomorrow's earnings call
• Additional details from today's earnings
• Update on tax dispute
• Exhibit 1: Ecopetrol summary financials
• Valuation and Key risks
• Disclosure Appendix

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