Early Signs of a Positive Inflection in Retail Equities and Crypto Trading

Retail equity and spot crypto trading volumes are showing early signs of a May 2026 inflection, supporting a constructive outlook for brokers and crypto stocks.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Retail equities trading volumes are showing a nascent recovery in May 2026, with TD volumes up 8% MTD MoM after several months of slowing.
• 2.Prediction markets are seeing explosive growth, with industry volumes up ~270x from 1Q24 to 2Q26 TD, though heavily concentrated in sports and crypto.
• 3.Spot crypto volumes may have reached a trough, with signs of stabilization in May despite substitution pressure from crypto ETFs and perpetual futures.

Table of Contents

• 1Q26 Earnings trends
• Key debates
• A nascent, positive inflection in retail trading volumes
• Structural growth in prediction markets
• At the cusp of spot crypto volume inflection; has product proliferation slowed spot volume growth?
• Upside to crypto estimates if the market structure bill were to pass?
• Debated stocks
• Valuation and new vs. old
• Disclosure Appendix

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