Goldman Sachs
May 22, 2026
Direct Lending Digest: Normalization in Credit Trends
Sector ReportRates CreditPrivate MarketsFinancials
The direct lending industry is seeing a normalization of credit trends, with non-accruals approaching historical levels (1.87%) and significant retail redemption pressure in evergreen BDC funds.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Credit quality is deteriorating from cyclical lows, with non-accruals rising to 1.87% industry-wide.
- 2.There is a sharp divide in performance between public BDCs (3.23% non-accruals) and non-traded retail evergreen funds (1.26% non-accruals).
- 3.The retail wealth channel is experiencing significant stress, with gross inflows down over 60% and redemption requests spiking to an annualized 50% rate.
Table of Contents
- Credit Trends: Modestly declining (though concentrated) credit trends, with widening dispersion among managers
- Volumes and Spreads: Origination volumes, pipelines and pricing
- Market Sizing: Gross/Net Asset Trends, Asset Composition, and Flows
- Appendix
- Disclosure Appendix
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Authors
Alexander BlosteinAnthony Corbin
Securities
BXKKROWLARES
Themes
Credit Quality NormalizationRetail Liquidity and RedemptionsManager Dispersion
Regions
North AmericaUnited States
