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Goldman Sachs

May 22, 2026

Direct Lending Digest: Normalization in Credit Trends

Sector ReportRates CreditPrivate MarketsFinancials

The direct lending industry is seeing a normalization of credit trends, with non-accruals approaching historical levels (1.87%) and significant retail redemption pressure in evergreen BDC funds.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.Credit quality is deteriorating from cyclical lows, with non-accruals rising to 1.87% industry-wide.
  • 2.There is a sharp divide in performance between public BDCs (3.23% non-accruals) and non-traded retail evergreen funds (1.26% non-accruals).
  • 3.The retail wealth channel is experiencing significant stress, with gross inflows down over 60% and redemption requests spiking to an annualized 50% rate.

Table of Contents

  • Credit Trends: Modestly declining (though concentrated) credit trends, with widening dispersion among managers
  • Volumes and Spreads: Origination volumes, pipelines and pricing
  • Market Sizing: Gross/Net Asset Trends, Asset Composition, and Flows
  • Appendix
  • Disclosure Appendix

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