China Weekly Kickstart

Chinese markets gained 1-3% this week as Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 earnings growth forecast for the CSI300 to 20%. Investors are focused on an upcoming May meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi amid moderated tourism growth and rising gold reserves.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Goldman Sachs raised its CSI300 index 2026 earnings growth forecast to 20% and its 12-month target to 5,300.
• 2.The upcoming meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi (scheduled for May 14-15) is a focal point, as historical data shows China equities often perform better following such interactions.
• 3.Labor Day tourism metrics showed moderated growth, with revenue per head remaining 11% below pre-pandemic levels.

Table of Contents

• Performance (Pages 8-12)
• Earnings and valuations (Pages 13-17)
• Flows (Pages 18)
• Key reports
• Policies and news
• Charts of the week: Trump-Xi Meeting
• Charts of the week: Market Update
• Charts of the week: Proprietary Models and Barometers
• Goldman Sachs' China strategy and economic view at a glance
• Macro indicators summary
• Performance snapshot: Global markets, commodities, FX and rates
• Weekly performance summary
• Weekly top and bottom performers in MSCI China
• Sector performance
• Relative performance of offshore China sectors
• Relative performance of onshore China sectors
• Earnings momentum and revisions
• China valuations
• Sector valuations
• Regional valuations
• Stock Connect weekly flows
• Style investing monitor (China Offshore)
• Style investing monitor (China Onshore)
• China specific baskets performance
• A/H premium and A-shares liquidity
• Breakdown of the Chinese alphabet soup

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