China Q4 2025 BOP Data Show Stronger Current Account Surplus

China's Q4 2025 current account surplus hit a record 4.4% of GDP driven by strong goods trade, leading Goldman Sachs to raise its 2026 surplus forecast to 4.3%.

Key Takeaways

• 1.China's Q4 2025 current account surplus reached a record high of 4.4% of GDP, up from 4.0% in Q3.
• 2.Goldman Sachs has revised its 2026 forecast for China's current account surplus upward to 4.3% of GDP.
• 3.Net FDI outflows narrowed significantly to US$1bn in Q4 2025 compared to US$34bn in Q3.

Table of Contents

• Bottom line:
• Main points:
• The China Economics Team
• Disclosure Appendix

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