CEEMEA Week Ahead: NBR On Hold, CPI and GDP Across the Region, Current Account Data in Turkiye

Goldman Sachs previews a heavy week of CEEMEA data, forecasting the Romanian central bank to hold rates at 6.50% while projecting Q1 GDP growth and April inflation trends for Poland, Russia, and Israel.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The National Bank of Romania (NBR) is expected to maintain its policy rate at +6.50% due to political uncertainty and unfavorable inflation outlook.
• 2.Mixed inflation trends are expected across CEEMEA, with rises in Romania and Poland but falls in Russia and stability in Israel.
• 3.Goldman Sachs remains bullish on South African Government Bonds (SAGBs), expecting yields to compress as the National Treasury restores fiscal credibility.

Table of Contents

• Romania: NBR on Hold, With a Significant Focus on Fiscal/Political Uncertainty
• Romania: Inflation to Rise From +9.8%yoy to +10.6%yoy in April, Driven by Higher Energy Prices
• Israel: Headline CPI Unchanged at +1.9%yoy, Below Consensus (+2.1%)
• Russia: Inflation to Fall to 5.6% as Ruble Strengthened and Subsidies Contain the Increase in Petrol Prices
• Turkiye: Current Account Deficit to Have Widened to US$9.5bn, Driven by a Wider Core Trade Deficit
• Romania: Q1 GDP to Increase, but Remain Weak in Both Annual and Sequential Terms
• Poland: GDP Growth to Remain Robust in Q1
• Russia: GDP to Have Contracted by 0.3%yoy
• South Africa: Constructive on SAGBs as Authorities Restore Fiscal Credibility

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