CEEMEA Week Ahead

This report provides a weekly economic outlook for the CEEMEA region, focusing on upcoming central bank meetings in Kenya and Türkiye, along with inflation and GDP data across South Africa, Hungary, Ukraine, Russia, Egypt, Romania, and Czechia.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Central banks in Kenya and Türkiye are expected to keep policy rates on hold despite inflationary pressures.
• 2.South African government bonds (SAGBs) are a constructive call due to improving fiscal credibility and potential for term premium compression.

Table of Contents

• Kenya: CBK Stay on Hold at +8.75%
• Türkiye: TCMB to Keep the Repo Rate Unchanged at 37.00% and Keep Funding the Banks Under the ON Window at 40.00%
• Hungary: Headline CPI to Remain Unchanged at +2.1%yoy
• Ukraine: Inflation to Decline by 0.3pp to +8.3%yoy
• Russia: Inflation to Decline Slightly to +5.5%yoy
• Egypt: Inflation to Decline from +14.9%yoy to +14.5%yoy in May
• Romania: Inflation to Rise From +10.7%yoy to +10.8%yoy in May, Driven by Higher Energy Prices
• Turkiye: Current Account Deficit to Narrow to US$5.5bn in April due to a One-Off Increase in Goods Exports
• South Africa: Q1 GDP – +0.3%qoq (SARB: +0.2%qoq; cons: +0.3%qoq); Q1 current account – +0.9% of GDP surplus (cons: +1.1%)
• South Africa: Constructive on SAGBs as Authorities Restore Fiscal Credibility