CEEMEA Week Ahead

Goldman Sachs previews a week of central bank decisions in Israel, Hungary, and South Africa, alongside CPI updates in Poland and Kenya.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) is expected to hike its policy rate by 25bp to 7.00% to maintain a real rate buffer against upward inflation revisions.
• 2.The Bank of Israel (BoI) is expected to remain on hold at 4.00% despite Shekel strength, prioritizing caution due to geopolitical uncertainty.
• 3.Inflation in Poland and Kenya is forecasted to rise in May, primarily driven by energy and transport fuel price pass-through.

Table of Contents

• Israel: In a Close Call, We Expect the Bol to Remain on Hold
• Hungary: MNB on Hold, While Flagging the Possibility of a June Cut
• South Africa: 25bp Rate Hike, Albeit with Some Risk of a Hold
• Poland: Headline CPI to Rise from +3.2% to +3.4%yoy in May, Driven by Transport Fuels
• Kenya: CPI to Increase by 0.6pp to +6.2%yoy in May
• South Africa: Constructive on SAGBs as Authorities Restore Fiscal Credibility

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