Ceemea Inflation Monitor

April inflation across CEEMEA rose mostly due to energy prices, but core inflation remained muted with minimal second-round effects. Consequently, most central banks are holding rates, though South Africa's forecast was revised upward to include two 25bp hikes.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Headline inflation rose across most CEEMEA economies in April, primarily driven by higher domestic fuel and energy prices.
• 2.Core inflation remains stable or muted, suggesting that second-round effects from energy price spikes have not yet materialized significantly.
• 3.The average 2026 inflation forecast for CEEMEA has been revised upward slightly to 9.6% yoy due to higher oil price assumptions.

Table of Contents

• Inflation Rose Generally in Line or Below Expectations, Driven by Energy
• The Rise in Core Inflation Was Muted With Few Second Round Effects Yet Visible
• Updated CEEMEA Inflation Forecasts
• Czech Republic: Inflation Rises by 0.6pp to +2.5%yoy, Owing to Non-Core Factors
• Hungary: Inflation Rises Less than Consensus Expectations; HUF Strength A Major Drag on Inflation in Months Ahead
• Poland: Inflation Rises by 0.2pp to +3.2%yoy, Above Expectations; Core Rises to +3.0%yoy, On Our Estimates
• Romania: Inflation Jumps to +10.7%yoy in April, Driven by Utilities and Transport Fuels
• Russia: Inflation Declines From +5.9%yoy to +5.6%yoy in April
• Turkiye: Inflation Surprises to the Upside
• Israel: Headline Inflation Unchanged at +1.9%yoy, In Slight Downside Surprise to Consensus
• Ukraine: Inflation Rises Further due to Higher Fuel Prices, In Line With Consensus
• South Africa: Inflation Rose in April on Higher Fuel Prices; Small Upside Surprise to Core
• Egypt: Inflation Declines by 0.3pp to +14.9%yoy, Driven by Food
• Ghana: Inflation Edges Up to 3.4% yoy in April, Surprising To The Downside
• Kenya: Headline Inflation Rises by 1.2pp in April, Surprising To The Upside

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