CEEMEA Growth Monitor: PMIs and CAIs Remain Weak in May

The CEEMEA Growth Monitor for May shows aggregate PMI reaching a neutral 50.0, though the Current Activity Indicator declined to 1.6% due to weakness in Russia. Financial conditions tightened across the region, while economic data surprises reached their highest level in two years.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The CEEMEA aggregate PMI rose to 50.0 in May, hitting the neutral line between expansion and contraction, but remains below the long-run average of 51.0.
• 2.Current Activity Indicators (CAIs) fell to +1.6% from +2.2%, largely due to significant economic weakness in Russia.
• 3.Financial conditions across the CEEMEA region tightened by an average of 47 basis points, led by a sharp tightening in Russia (+93bp).

Table of Contents

• Aggregate PMI Improves, but Remains Relatively Weak
• Aggregate CAI Dragged Lower by Russia
• Financial Conditions Tighten Across CEEMEA
• CEEMEA Growth Indicators Surprise to the Upside in May
• Poland
• Czechia
• Hungary
• Romania
• Russia
• Türkiye
• South Africa
• Israel
• Additional Countries
• The CEEMEA Economics Team
• Disclosure Appendix