Brazil: Higher End-2026 Selic Expectation

Goldman Sachs reports that Brazilian market analysts have raised their end-2026 Selic rate expectation to 13.25% as inflation expectations remain stubbornly above the central bank's target.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Inflation expectations for 2026 have risen to 4.92%, which is significantly above the central bank's 4.50% upper limit.
• 2.Median market expectations for the Selic policy rate at end-2026 have been revised upward to 13.25%.
• 3.Fiscal credibility remains low as market participants expect primary deficits through 2028 and a deep nominal deficit over 7% through 2029.

Table of Contents

• DETAILS:
• Median Inflation Expectations: Above Target 2026-2028 Expectations
• 12-Month Ahead Inflation Expectations
• Median Selic Policy Rate Expectations
• Median Real GDP Growth Expectations
• Median Primary Fiscal Balance Expectations
• Median Overall Fiscal Balance Expectations
• Disclosure Appendix
• Global product; distributing entities
• General disclosures

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