Analysis of Brazil's April BCB SCR data shows a sequential slowdown in loan origination and modest NPL increases, though deterioration remains concentrated outside the major S2 growth banks.
Key Takeaways
- 1.April loan origination in Brazil showed a modest slowdown from high 1Q26 levels, partially attributed to fewer working days (20 vs 22 in March).
- 2.Asset quality deterioration is mostly concentrated in S3 and S4 institutions for credit cards, and S1 institutions for personal loans.
- 3.Nu Holdings (NU) continues to dominate S2 segment loan growth, despite a sequential drop in net origination from R$4.1bn/month to R$2.9bn.
Table of Contents
- Most of the asset quality deterioration is not at S2 institutions
- Net loan origination for NU is sequentially lower, but still growing
- Credit data for S1 institutions seems to be only partially available
- Middle income credit cards deteriorated more than low income
- S1 institutions showed the most deterioration in personal loans
- Rural NPLs showed improvement, but possibly incomplete data
- Auto loans, payroll loans and mortgages
- Corporate and SME loans
- NU cross-read: Net loan origination slows in April for S2 institutions
- Valuation and risks
- Disclosure Appendix
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Authors
Tito LabartaTiago Binsfeld, CFAJuliana Ohara
Securities
NUBBAS3ITUBSANB11
Themes
Credit Cycle Asset QualityFintech vs Incumbent Competition
Regions
Latin AmericaBrazil
