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Goldman Sachs

May 20, 2026

Basics - NVDA Ahead, Auto Traffic Down, Speed of Rebound

Market ReportEquitiesRates Govt BondsFXInformation TechnologyEnergy

The report highlights NVDA's upcoming earnings as a pivotal market anchor and discusses the macroeconomic pressures of high global rates and AI infrastructure costs. It also notes signs of consumer fatigue in Europe and the 'impossible triangle' facing Japanese monetary policy.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.Nvidia (NVDA) earnings represent the week's anchor event, with markets focused on gross margins and guidance over simple beats.
  • 2.Japan is facing an 'impossible triangle' trying to maintain stable FX, stable rates, and growth, with FX likely to bear the brunt of future adjustments.
  • 3.Supply is emerging as a dominant macro theme as the global economy finances massive physical infrastructure for AI, potentially crowding out sovereign debt.

Table of Contents

  • Overnight
  • Oil Impact
  • Japan/JPY
  • Rates
  • AI/NVDA
  • Risk
  • side-note

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Authors

Rich Privorotsky

Securities

NVDAGOOGLAMDVinciNKY

Themes

AI Infrastructure Capex vs Bond YieldsThe Impossible Triangle of Japanese PolicyPrimary Equity Supply

Regions

North AmericaAsia PacificEuropeUnited StatesJapanUnited Kingdom