Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena Capital Flexibility Remains Core to Our Thesis

Goldman Sachs reiterates its Buy rating on BMPS, highlighting a sector-leading 68% capital return plan through 2030 and undemanding valuation following strong Q1 results.

Key Takeaways

• 1.BMPS is expected to return approximately 68% of its market capitalization to shareholders via dividends and buybacks between 2026 and 2030.
• 2.Management has guided for Group Profit Before Tax (PBT) to exceed €3.5bn by 2026, supported by NII growth and cost synergies.
• 3.The merger with Mediobanca, expected to complete in Q4 2026, offers significant cost synergy potential, with Goldman Sachs suggesting scope for over-delivery.

Table of Contents

• Strong growth in profitability over the forecast period
• Solid organic capital generation and sector leading distribution
• Valuation remains undemanding despite recent re-rating
• Estimate Changes, Valuation and Key Risks:
• Disclosure Appendix

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