Australian Lithium and Gold Coverage

Goldman Sachs provides a 2026 outlook for the Australian metals sector, favoring gold miners over lithium producers. The report forecasts gold prices to remain elevated near $4,850/oz while predicting a cooling lithium market.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish stance on several gold names, issuing 'Buy' ratings for NST, NEM, CMM, BGL, RMS, WGX, and PNR.
• 2.The analysts are bearish on several lithium and specific gold names, issuing 'Sell' ratings for PLS, MIN, EVN, and GGP.
• 3.Commodity forecasts show gold prices staying strong (averaging ~$4,851/oz in 2026) while spodumene prices are expected to drop significantly from spot levels ($2,630) to a 2026 estimate of $1,700/t.

Table of Contents

• Coverage Summary
• Commodity & FX Forecasts
• GSe Base Case vs Spot Prices and FX
• Consensus Forecasts
• Average FCF Yield vs Production Growth
• Valuation (P/NAV) vs. NTM EV/EBITDA
• Lithium Pricing
• GS Lithium S/D Model
• Lithium Sector Metrics
• Global Lithium EV/Resource Comparison
• Australian Hard Rock Projects
• Lithium Reserves and Resources
• Gold Sector Metrics
• Gold Reserves and Resources
• Disclosure Appendix

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