Australian Bulks Base Metals And Steels

This report details coverage summaries, spot pricing scenarios, and commodity forecasts for major Australian bulks, base metals, and steel companies.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Buy ratings maintained for BHP, CIA, ILU, and LYC.
• 2.Sell ratings maintained for WHC, NHC, and MIN.

Table of Contents

• Coverage Summary, Forecasts, and Spot Pricing Scenarios
• Coverage Summary
• Commodity & FX forecasts
• GSe base case vs at spot prices and FX
• GSe base case vs. VA Consensus
• GSe Commodity price vs. VA Cons & Forward curve
• Coverage EV/EBITDA - grouped by subsector
• Production growth vs average FCF yield
• Price/NAV vs EV/EBITDA
• NTM EBITDA sensitivities: +10% change in GSe forecast (1/2)
• NTM EBITDA sensitivities: +10% change in GSe forecast (2/2)
• NAVPS sensitivities: +10% change in GSe long run commodity prices (1/2)
• NAVPS sensitivities: +10% change in GSe long run commodity prices (2/2)
• What's priced in to our stocks?
• Rolling NAVPS and EBITDA growth
• Large cap miners – NAV and EBITDA split by commodity
• Large cap miners – Cu Eq production growth
• Large cap miners – FCF
• Large cap miners – Cu Eq production growth, EBITDA, net debt & dividend yield
• Iron ore supply
• Pilbara iron ore shipments (annualised)
• Iron ore prices
• Iron ore inventories
• Steel prices & spreads
• Ferrous scrap trade flow (annualised)
• Australia (Qld & NSW) coal exports and China & India coal imports (annualised)
• Coal prices
• Zircon imports & pricing. Rutile & RE (NdPr) pricing
• China NdFeB Exports (annualised), NdFeB export price & Rare-earth trade flows
• GS Iron Ore S/D Model
• GS Steel S/D Model
• GS Copper S/D Model
• GS Aluminium S/D Model
• GS Zinc S/D Model
• GS Met Coal S/D Model
• GS Thermal Coal S/D Model
• GS Lithium S/D Model
• Rare Earths
• Zircon Supply/Demand
• GS SUSTAIN Australian Metals & Mining Summary