Australian Bulks Base Metals and Steels

This Goldman Sachs report provides a 2026 coverage summary and price forecast for the Australian bulk, base metals, and steel sectors, highlighting top buy and sell recommendations.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Maintain Buy ratings on BHP, CIA, ILU, and LYC based on commodity outlooks and valuation.
• 2.Maintain Sell ratings on WHC, NHC, and MIN due to unfavorable risk/reward or commodity headwinds.
• 3.Commodity price forecasts for 2026 anticipate US$99/t for Iron Ore (61% Fe) and US$5.74/lb for Copper.

Table of Contents

• Coverage Summary
• Commodity & FX forecasts
• GSe base case vs at spot prices and FX
• GSe base case vs. VA Consensus
• GSe Commodity price vs. VA Cons & Forward curve
• Coverage EV/EBITDA - grouped by subsector
• Production growth vs average FCF yield
• Price/NAV vs EV/EBITDA
• NTM EBITDA sensitivities
• NAVPS sensitivities
• What's priced in to our stocks?
• Rolling NAVPS and EBITDA growth
• Large cap miners – NAV and EBITDA split by commodity
• Large cap miners – Cu Eq production growth
• Large cap miners – FCF
• Iron ore supply
• Iron ore prices
• Steel prices & spreads
• Coal prices
• Zircon imports & pricing
• NdPr pricing
• GS Iron Ore S/D Model
• GS Steel S/D Model
• GS Copper S/D Model
• GS Lithium S/D Model
• Rare Earths
• Zircon Supply/Demand
• GS SUSTAIN Australian Metals & Mining Summary

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