Australia Metals and Mining Gold

Goldman Sachs analyzes the Australian gold sector, warning of near-term margin compression while maintaining a bullish long-term view on gold prices. Ratings were adjusted for EVN (upgraded to Neutral) and CMM (downgraded to Neutral), with a preference for stocks like NST, NEM, and RMS.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Australian gold equities face near-term margin compression due to moderating A$ gold prices and re-emerging cost pressures (labor, diesel, consumables).
• 2.Goldman Sachs remains bullish on gold long-term, projecting a return to US$5,400/oz by end of CY26, with a long-run price of US$3,800/oz.
• 3.Evolution Mining (EVN) is upgraded to Neutral from Sell due to supportive copper pricing and valuation discount; Capricorn Metals (CMM) is downgraded to Neutral from Buy following significant outperformance.

Table of Contents

• Gold vs. equity and margin performance summary
• Gold price assumptions
• Sector outlook, sensitivities, and base case valuation metrics
• Relative valuation metrics under gold pricing scenarios (~US$3,500-5,500/oz)
• Coverage summary
• Rating, NAV, EPS and price target changes
• Investment risks
• Operating and financial summaries