Asia Pacific Inflation Monitor

The Asia-Pacific region is facing a significant inflation shock driven by rising oil prices following the onset of war in Iran. Headline CPI is now trending at or above central bank targets in most covered economies, particularly in Southeast Asia.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Energy price forecasts have been raised significantly due to the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent expected to reach $90/bbl in Q4.
• 2.CPI inflation across Asia-Pacific is now broadly in line with or above central bank target ranges, a shift from the pre-war period.
• 3.Lower-income economies (Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam) are experiencing acute inflation pressures, with 3-month annualized rates exceeding 10%.

Table of Contents

• The Energy Price Shock
• Regional inflation summary
• Mainland China
• South Korea
• Taiwan
• India
• Indonesia
• Malaysia
• Philippines
• Thailand
• Vietnam
• Japan
• Hong Kong
• Singapore
• Australia
• New Zealand
• Disclosure Appendix

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