Goldman Sachs
May 10, 2026
Americas Transportation: Tracking Trucker Employment
Sector ReportEquitiesMacro Economic IndicatorsIndustrials
Truckload driver employment remains at decade-lows (6.3% below pre-COVID), despite a slight uptick in March and April hiring. Regulatory threats like the 'Dalilah law' may further constrain capacity, potentially supporting higher TL rates and equity performance.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Truckload (TL) driver levels remain significantly depressed, reaching the lowest point since 2014 and sitting 6.3% below pre-COVID levels.
- 2.Legislative changes, such as the proposed Dalilah law, could further restrict driver supply by limiting CDLs to U.S. citizens and permanent residents.
- 3.Truckload stocks have outperformed the broader transportation sector as capacity balance improves and spot rates accelerate.
Table of Contents
- Americas Transportation
- Disclosure Appendix
- Reg AC
- GS Factor Profile
- M&A Rank
- Quantum
- Disclosures
- Regulatory disclosures
- Ratings, coverage universe and related definitions
- Global product; distributing entities
- General disclosures
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Authors
Jordan AlligerPaul StoddardAndrzej Tomczyk, CFA
Securities
Truckload (TL) Stock Index
Themes
Labor Supply and Driver ShortageRegulatory Impact on CapacitySpot Rate and Equity Performance Correlation
Regions
North AmericaUnited States
