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Goldman Sachs

May 10, 2026

Americas Transportation: Tracking Trucker Employment

Sector ReportEquitiesMacro Economic IndicatorsIndustrials

Truckload driver employment remains at decade-lows (6.3% below pre-COVID), despite a slight uptick in March and April hiring. Regulatory threats like the 'Dalilah law' may further constrain capacity, potentially supporting higher TL rates and equity performance.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.Truckload (TL) driver levels remain significantly depressed, reaching the lowest point since 2014 and sitting 6.3% below pre-COVID levels.
  • 2.Legislative changes, such as the proposed Dalilah law, could further restrict driver supply by limiting CDLs to U.S. citizens and permanent residents.
  • 3.Truckload stocks have outperformed the broader transportation sector as capacity balance improves and spot rates accelerate.

Table of Contents

  • Americas Transportation
  • Disclosure Appendix
  • Reg AC
  • GS Factor Profile
  • M&A Rank
  • Quantum
  • Disclosures
  • Regulatory disclosures
  • Ratings, coverage universe and related definitions
  • Global product; distributing entities
  • General disclosures

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Authors

Jordan AlligerPaul StoddardAndrzej Tomczyk, CFA

Securities

Truckload (TL) Stock Index

Themes

Labor Supply and Driver ShortageRegulatory Impact on CapacitySpot Rate and Equity Performance Correlation

Regions

North AmericaUnited States