Americas Regional Banks & Consumer Finance 2Q26 Preview

This report provides a 2Q26 earnings preview for Americas Regional Banks and Consumer Finance, highlighting strong loan growth against a backdrop of increasing deposit cost pressure. Analysts identify idiosyncratic drivers as the primary focus for performance differentiation in a shifting micro-market.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Regional banks are seeing their strongest loan growth backdrop since 2021, supporting upside to earnings despite deposit cost pressures.
• 2.Consumer finance sector fundamentals remain constructive with steady credit performance and recovering spend, transitioning back to a 'micro' market.
• 3.Deposit competition is intensifying, which is the primary focus for 2Q26 results and likely to impact net interest margin outlooks.

Table of Contents

• Thoughts on Regional Banks into 2Q26 EPS
• Thoughts on Consumer Finance into 2Q26 EPS
• PPNR / EPS expectations
• FITB: NII to the highs
• ZION: NII could beat the street
• RF: Loan growth improving; could point to mid-point or higher on NII guide
• HBAN: Could see a touch slower NII growth in 2026; expect 2027 EPS reiteration
• KEY: Likely more loan growth than advertised
• CFG: Some seasonal softness in 3Q?
• FHN: Mixed 2Q on lower ADR; looking for color on 2H revenue growth
• MTB: Where will margins move to; impact of buyback commentary
• FCNCA: Will NII guide change with rate hikes, and will the plan for FDIC repayment change?
• TFC: Watching 2026 NII guide and 2027 targets amid new CEO
• AXP: Revenue growth trending to the high end or above
• COF: NIM should beat while consensus costs look reasonable
• ALLY: Focus on exit margin
• BFH: NCOs tracking lower than expected with potential upside to loans
• SYF: Could be looking at lower end of EPS guide
• RKT: Originations trending higher than expected
• UWMC: Likely at low end on volumes and high end on margins; waiting on dividend decision

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