Goldman Sachs has raised its 2026 industrial absorption forecast for Americas REITs, citing a potential inflection point in demand indicators. Despite this, new supply levels are expected to continue tempering rent growth throughout the year.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Increased FY26 industrial absorption estimate to 195mn SF from 138mn SF due to higher trade/import-export activity.
- 2.LMI Pricing data indicates a potential inflection point in absorption, though market rent growth remains limited for 2026.
- 3.New supply is at multi-year lows, but 2026 completions (232mn SF) still exceed projected absorption, capping rent growth.
Table of Contents
- Demand: reviewing industrial absorption and its indicators
- Availability: Still relatively high but stabilizing
- Supply and transaction volume
- Industrial Valuation, Estimates, Price Targets, Risks
- Appendix
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Authors
Caitlin BurrowsJeremy KuhlShailee LnuHarrison Slater
Securities
TRNOFR
Themes
Industrial AbsorptionREIT ValuationSupply/Demand Imbalance
Regions
North AmericaUnited States