Americas Beverages Beer Distributor Survey

Goldman Sachs' beer distributor survey indicates a weak start to the summer season driven by macro pressures and weather, though Constellation Brands (STZ) remains a top pick.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Memorial Day weekend beer trends were lackluster due to macro environment pressures and the wettest weather in 5 years.
• 2.Constellation Brands (STZ) is the primary standout, gaining shelf space while competitors HEIN, SAM, and TAP are losing it.
• 3.Distributors have lowered their beer category growth outlook for 2026 to -2.1% from -1.4%.

Table of Contents

• STZ - Positive distributor feedback - key IR takeaways
• TAP - Feedback more cautious than we anticipated
• SAM - Remain cautious on continued pressures within Twisted Tea & Truly and mixed traction with LYTT despite Sun Cruiser momentum
• Weather during the Memorial Day Weekend this year was the wettest and one of the coldest holidays in the past 5 years
• Takeaways from Our Survey
• Detailed Takeaways From Our “Beverage Bytes” Survey
• Memorial Day Weekend - Beer trends over the Memorial Day holiday weekend were broadly weak
• Beer category trends - Distributors indicated decelerating beer category sales trends in April/May vs Q1, and are more cautious about 2026 summer season
• On-premise - Shifts in consumer preference and affordability concerns are weighing on beer volumes, but STZ screens positively vs peers
• Consumer pressure - The challenging macro and geopolitical backdrop is creating even more pressure on the consumer as gas prices move higher and consumers change purchasing behavior
• Shelf/Cooler Space - Beer lost some space in the spring though less than feared; Spirit-Based RTDs and STZ are the big winners of space this spring, while HEIN, SAM & TAP are seen as space donors
• FIFA World Cup, Olympics, the US' 250th Anniversary - Events anticipated to be impactful
• STZ Volume Trends - Sequential improvement in volume trends through May
• Modelo Especial - Sales expected to growth this year
• Corona's Performance - Distributors are cautious on Corona but are mostly positive on Sunbrew
• Miller Lite & Coors Light - Core brands continue to decline and are in need of a catalyst to regain traction
• Monaco Cocktails - Distributors are split on the growth potential ahead, though a majority skew more cautious
• SAM's Brands - Twisted Tea & Truly remain pressured, while Sun Cruiser remains strong
• Valuation, Price Target Methodology, and Key Risks
• Disclosure Appendix

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