Americas Asset Managers Growth Outlook

Despite a 20% YTD average decline in alternative asset manager stocks, Goldman Sachs maintains a constructive outlook for the group, citing resilient institutional demand and attractive valuations at 19x NTM P/DE. A sharp slowdown in retail private credit inflows is expected to be offset by long-term growth in infrastructure, AI, and secondaries.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Alternative asset managers maintain a healthy growth outlook despite YTD stock underperformance, with an expected 14% management fee CAGR through 2028.
• 2.The Retail/Wealth Private Credit channel is a significant near-term headwind, with 2Q sales projected to collapse by over 50% from 1Q26 levels.
• 3.Valuations remain attractive, with the group trading at a 20% discount to its 5-year historical average NTM P/DE multiple.

Table of Contents

• Summary: Key performance, growth and valuation stats across Alternative Managers
• Fundraising: Resilient in 1Q Despite Credit Headwinds; Wealth Private Credit - largest (but manageable) drag on growth for most managers
• Deployment: Record Available Capital suggests more constructive 2H26 Outlook
• Realizations: Exit timelines likely pushed out amid macro backdrop, portfolio performance remains positive with wider dispersion
• Appendix

Document Preview

Page 1 of 5

Subscribe for full accessStart Free Trial