Alstom FY25/26 Release and Outlook

Alstom released FY25/26 results in line with expectations and confirmed its FY26/27 guidance. Goldman Sachs maintains a Sell rating, citing industrialization challenges and heavy cash flow seasonality.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Alstom confirmed its FY26/27 guidance, including a book-to-bill ratio above 1x and an adjusted EBIT margin of approximately 6.5%.
• 2.Free cash flow for FY26/27 is expected to be positive overall, but will face significant seasonality with a -€1.5bn outflow in the first half.
• 3.Q4 car production was lower than expected (4.28k) due to industrialization challenges, though the target for next year is raised to 4.4-4.5k.

Table of Contents

• Key Data
• GS Forecast
• GS Factor Profile
• Ratios & Valuation
• Growth & Margins (%)
• Price Performance
• Balance Sheet (€ mn)
• Cash Flow (€ mn)
• Income Statement (€ mn)
• Exhibit 1: Alstom FY25/26 vs. Company-compiled & Visible Alpha Consensus Data
• Exhibit 2: Alstom contract assets and liabilities as % sales
• Disclosure Appendix
• Price target and rating history chart(s)
• Target price history table(s)
• Regulatory disclosures
• Global product; distributing entities
• General disclosures

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